A Snappy Election Special
Historic and unprecedented elections in the UK and France - what they mean for the U.S.'s most consequential Presidential election in November.
If you’re a politically inclined American like me, you’ve probably been following the Democratic discourse since the recent Presidential debates. I joked that our 5.5 month old (who has traditionally been a fantastic sleeper) is doing me a solid by waking more frequently in the night so that I can tap into Twitter and follow along in case something dramatic happens.
Beyond the U.S. Presidential cycle, with its stakes (never higher) and candidates (never older), there are other crucial elections across the globe pitting democratic ideals against increasing waves of authoritarianism or right wing extremism. If you want to follow along, in addition to your favorite media outlets and their coverage, Katie Harbath has a fantastic substack that focuses on elections and in particular the role social media will increasingly play (giver her a follow!).
There are a lot of takes circulating from several smart pundits on what broader global trends may be at play, but one thing I’ve seen in my corner of the internet is a plea for the U.S. to repeat the outcomes of the UK and French elections as if their outcomes equally signal promise for liberal values. But each election over the pond actually reveals what we too see back home - the dilution of a moderate conservative party.
I’m a registered Democrat and have voted for the party since I was able - up and down ballot. I, like many Americans, also pine for the days when the Republican Party forced necessary, pragmatic discourse on policy issues. The days before we devolved to tribalism - the days before Trump. When we evaluate the UK and French elections as attempts at tea leaves for what we can expect in the U.S. both this November and beyond, it’s important to remember that the similar erosion of the moderate right doesn’t simply mean a landslide for the left, but also a foothold for the far right.
France’s messy elections illustrate this point most acutely - where political gymnastics, gambling, and sacrifice were required to hold back the National Rally. It was, indeed, the NR versus everyone else in round two of the elections on 7 July. A move of collective will embedded in France’s modern democracy - cordon sanitaire - or a political firewall coupled with political sacrifice held off the NR. Well-reported but also mystifying for those unfamiliar with the French political system, Macron’s Renaissance Party all but bowed out of certain races to buoy the left in a new coalition - the New Popular Front (NFP). In fact 221 candidates withdrew from the second round of elections to ensure the anti-NR front consolidated. By the measure of saving Democracy - a success, but France is walking away from the election bruised, fractured, polarized and embarking on unprecedented times for governing.
In the UK, Labour had a historic showing by all metrics - rightly reported as a landslide victory. Below the surface, however, we don’t see a total rebuke of the rise of right wing parties that underscored the European Parliamentary elections, but rather echoes of the same. The UK’s right wing Reform Party secured 14% of votes nationwide. That is a similar margin to the German far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) Party’s margin (16%) in the EU Parliamentary elections. Because of the UK’s electoral system, smaller parties’ success amount to mere dents in representation - and Reform will only hold 5 seats in UK Parliament (in contrast to the more significant share of AfD seats within the EU Parliament.) Still the sentiment is simmering and Populism is on the rise.
Back to the States, with polls showing Biden trailing Trump just shy of double digits, the far right isn’t a fringe party, it largely has become the Republican Party thanks in large part to identity politics and an immovable MAGA base that hold the floor for the GOP. The opportunities for coalition building and fire-walling worthy of Paris (yes, the recent elections … but also the upcoming Olympics) are limited by our system.
If we are to take one lesson it is that in the face of democracy’s demise, we need radical political sacrifice like what we saw in France.
That could mean a shift in strategy to course correct Biden’s campaign. Or, a change a the top of the ticket. I’m inclined to align with the sentiment implied by this familiar podcaster:
